Mapping Long-Term Changes in Forest Cover Using Multispectral Satellite Remote Sensing Data

Introduction. Shifts in the habitat ranges of tree species are among the continental-scale consequences of climate change. Mapping these shifts and their quantitative estimation are essential for evaluating the carbon balance. In this work, a method for mapping long-term changes in forest cover, thus permitting evaluation of treeline shifts, is demonstrated on the example of the mountain ecosystem of the Subpolar Urals. The stages of preliminary selection and processing of Landsat multispectral remote sensing data from the Google Earth Engine platform are described. The results of mapping long-term changes in forest cover and quantitative estimation of the total area of treeline transition are presented.

Aim. Mapping of long-term changes in forest cover and their quantitative estimation using Landsat multispectral remote sensing data and expert assessments of ecological zone boundaries in the mountains of the Subpolar Urals (on the example of the Sablya Ridge).

Materials and methods. Cloud-free multispectral images from Landsat satellites 4–9 of top-of-atmosphere reflectance, which underwent relative radiometric correction, as well as surface reflectance data, were used. Expert assessments of ecological zone boundaries were obtained, and regression analysis was used.

Results. Based on the statistical time series analysis for the period from 1987 to 2024, the total area of treeline transition from 1960 to 2024 was established to be 4.82 km². An acceleration of treeline transition from 1970 to 1995 was recorded.

Conclusion. The described method allows long-term spatial dynamics of treeline shifts to be mapped and quantitatively estimated. The obtained estimates agree well with those obtained by expert assessment. The recorded period of accelerated treeline transition coincides with that of global temperature changes.

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